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Master Thesis - Real Option Valuation of oil and gas megaprojects
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Antoine Paillat Financial Valuation of oil and gas megaprojects using real option theory December 3, 2, master thesis real options. Problem Statement 2. Literature review of Real Option Theory 3. Methodology 4. Findings and Discussion 5. Conclusion 2 3. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Main Research Question Could we indentify and measure the added value of flexibility in oil and gas megaprojects, by performing simple real options financial valuations? Secondary Research Question Using the valuation results, which investment recommendations and strategic guidance could be provided to oil and gas decision-makers regarding investments in megaprojects?
Literature Review 3. Conclusion 4 5. Literature Review 5 1. Dealing with the uncertainty Dixit and R. Following is their simple yet famous example of the widget factory.
Then price the price is assumed to remain at this new level forever. Then price the price is assumed to at this new level forever. Literature Review 6 2. Common real options in the oil and gas sector C. Harvey, Identifying real options, Duke University Press Oilfield Review, Unlocking the Value of Real Options industry.
Harvey in his paper Identifying real optionsDuke University Press. It is the option to delay the investment until the economic conditions become more favorable.
Oil and gas: Equivalent to delaying the investment in an oilfield until the market price for crude oil makes it economically viable. Delay Option 7. Literature Review 7 2. Abandon or Termination optionII. the right to sell the remaining cash flows for some salvage value. Oil and gas: From the point of view of an oil and gas operator a majorit is equivalent to abandoning the development of an oilfield and selling the expected master thesis real options of the project to the resources owner a NOC at a contractually settled price.
Financial markets master thesis real options Buying a put option which will be exercised to abandon the project. S: Stock Price PV of Cash-Flows X: Premium First CAPEX T: Maturity Time on lease II. Literature Review 8 2.
P4.6 Real Options
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